May WASDE 2024

May 10, 2024

May WASDE 2024
The USDA pegged the 23/24 marketing year carryout at 2.022 bil bu, 78 mln bu less than the average guess.  The 24/25 marketing year carryout starts out at 2.102 bil bu, 18 mln bu less than the average trade guess.  Production in South America did drop 2 mmt from the April WASDE in both Argentina and Brazil.  Corn up 10 c currently.
No material change to the 23/24 balance sheet on soybeans.  USDA has projected carryout for the 24/25 marketing year at 445 mln bu today, about 100 mln bu higher than the current 23/24 projection.  Brazilian soybean production down 1 mmt from last month, but still a large gap between the USDA and CONAB’s estimates.  We will see who ends up being right.  Beans up 5 c currently.
Wheat carryout for the 23/24 marketing year came in at 688 mln bu, 8 mlb bu higher than the average trade guess.  World wheat carryout for 23/24 marketing year was up 1 mmt from expectation.  24/25 marketing year carryout down almost 4 mmt from the average guess.  Hard Red production for 23/24 up 16 mln bu from expectation.  KC Wheat up 19 c currently.
Bottom Line
No real drastic changes to the balance sheet for either the 23/24 or 24/25 marketing year from expectation.  Weather will be what drives the market going forward until we get to the June planted acre numbers. 

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