USDA Grain Summary - Nov. 9

Nov 09, 2023

November 2023 WASDE Commentary

The USDA raised corn yield to 174.9 bu, up 1.9 bushels from the October WASDE. Demand was raised by 125 million bushels, feed up 50 mln, ethanol up 25 mln, exports up 50 mln. Factoring in the higher yield and higher demand carryout comes in at 2.156 bln bu. Currently, corn is down 6 c.

The USDA raised soybean yield to 49.9 bu, up .3 bu vs the Oct WASDE. Demand was virtually left unchanged, resulting in a carryout of 245 mln bushels. Currently, soybeans are down 18 c.

The USDA raised carry out 15 mln bu to 684 mln in today’s report, nothing to get the bulls excited on the prospects for wheat. Cheap Russian wheat is still the headwind for a market rally until that changes our demand outlook is not rosy. The only bright spot for wheat today is the size of the fund short, war headlines could provide a spark at some point if they decide to cover some of their position. Currently, wheat is down 8 c.

Bottom Line
Nothing friendly in today’s report, back to watching South American weather. It sounds like a broken record, but corn carryout north of 2 billion bushels will make it very tough for corn to rally significantly. Nationwide producers undersold on corn, which means any rally we get will be capped by hedge pressure.

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