USDA Grain Summary - Oct.12
Oct 12, 2023
Corn
The USDA lowered corn yield to 173 bushels in the October WASDE, lowering production to 15.064 billion bushels. The lower production estimate was slightly offset by a demand decrease in feed and exports, both 25 million bushels lower than the September report. Carryout came in 2.111 billion bushels, lower than the average trade guess by 27 million bushels. Corn is up 8 c currently.
Soybeans
The USDA lowered soybean yield to 49.6, down from the 50.1 number from the September report. USDA did lower demand to offset the domestic production decrease, leaving soybean carryout unchanged from the September report at 220 million bushels. Today's surprise came from the World carryout numbers, down almost 4 million metric tons from the average trade guess. Production in Brazil and Argentina is currently estimated at 163.0 million metric tons and 48 million metric tons respectively. Soybeans are up 38 c.
Wheat
Not much for wheat to digest in today’s report. The world carryout number was right in line with the average trade guess. US carryout was up 55 million bushels from the September WASDE as they factored in the higher production numbers from the September Small Grains Summary. Wheat turned around from the strength in corn and soybeans, currently up 4 c.
Bottom Line
In the report, there wasn't a drastic change to the overall fundamentals. It still will be difficult for corn to muster a significant rally with carryout north of 2 billion bushels. We will see if the lower world carryout on soybeans can sustain this strength, otherwise, South American production concerns need to arise to give us any major upside.
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