USDA Grain Summary - Sept. 12
Sep 12, 2023
September 2023 WASDE Commentary
The USDA dropped corn yield to 173.8 bushels versus an average trade guess of 173.5. The yield loss was offset by a higher-than-anticipated harvested acre number of 87.1 million. The trade was looking for a reduction in carryout of 60 million bushels, but the USDA raised carryout by 19 mln bu. Carryout is still at a very comfortable 2.2 billion bushels.
The USDA lowered soybean yield to 50.1 bu, almost spot on with the average trade guess. They also lowered crush demand by 10 million bu and export demand by 35 million bu. The reduction in demand leaves carryout at a snug 220 million bushels versus the average trade guess of 207 million. Would not be shocked to see more yield reduction on the soybeans in the coming reports.
Domestic wheat S & D's were left untouched, leaving us with a carryout of 615 million bushels. The world's carryout number was cut to 258 million metric tons, which was a larger reduction than the lowest trade guess. The tighter world numbers are helping wheat tread water in the face of a bearish corn and soybean report.
The trade hoped the USDA would show tighter corn and soybean balance sheets. It will be tough for corn to muster a considerable rally as long as we print a carryout north of 2 billion bu. Soybeans have little room for additional yield loss with the snug carryout number. Watch to see if there will be any additional yield loss in future reports. Wheat is the lone bright spot today, with the world carryout numbers coming in lower than expected. As of writing this, corn is down 10 c, beans down 24 c, and wheat up 3 c.
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