USDA Grain Summary - Sept. 29

September 2023 Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains Summary Commentary

Corn

September ending stocks on corn came in at 1.361 billion bushels, lower than the average trade guess by 68 million bushels. Ending stocks in 2023 were lower than in 2022 by 16 million bushels. The USDA revised the 2022 corn production number down to 15 million bushels. Not a bearish report overall but weakness in soybeans and wheat weighing on corn. Corn is down 6 c currently.

Soybeans

September ending stocks for soybeans were 268 million bushels, up 26 million from the average trade guess. That number does include a downward revision of the 2022 production numbers by almost 6 million bushels. Certainly not the bullish soybean report the trade was hoping for. Now we wait to see what the USDA does with yield in the October WASDE. Soybeans are currently down 23 c.

Wheat

All 2023/24 wheat production was 55 million bushels larger than the highest trade guess and up 78 million bushels from the August report. Soft Red is up 9 million bushels, Hard Red up 16 million bushels, and Spring wheat up 55 million bushels from the USDA’s August numbers. September ending stocks for all wheat was close to what the trade looked for. None of these numbers will provide the turnaround hoped for on the KC wheat market. KC Wheat is down 16 c.

Bottom Line

This report will not fundamentally change the current environment we are in. Back to watching demand as the low Mississippi River levels will continue to make it tough for the US to gain export market share.

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